Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4276
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4276 · IAH → PBC
departs 10:02 AM CT · arrives 11:22 AM CST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PBC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PBC?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBC
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
PBC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.