Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4277
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4277 · PBC → IAH
departs 12:33 PM CST · arrives 4:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PBC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBC
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PBC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.