Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4369
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4369 · IAH → MOB
departs 10:15 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MOB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MOB?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MOB
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
MOB (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.