Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4830 · LIT → IAH
departs 11:57 AM CT · arrives 1:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,067 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.