Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4862 · ITH → IAD
departs 10:27 AM ET · arrives 11:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ITH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
10am departures from ITH are usually not late
Weather at each end
ITH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.13 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.