Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4863 · LBB → IAH
departs 6:45 AM CT · arrives 8:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 10%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
6am departures from LBB are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LBB (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.