Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
C5 4871 · IAD → ROC
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ROC that day
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.