Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4909
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4909 · HSV → IAH
departs 11:02 AM CT · arrives 1:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
11am departures from HSV are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HSV (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.