Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4942
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4942 · ALB → IAD
departs 2:57 PM ET · arrives 4:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ALB
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ALB (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.