Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4952
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4952 · IAH → SHV
departs 9:55 AM CT · arrives 11:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SHV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SHV?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SHV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
SHV (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.