Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4954 · ITH → IAD
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ITH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at ITH that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
ITH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.13 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.