Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4969 · IAH → ECP
departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 2:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 20%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
ECP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.