Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 448 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

CM 448 · PTY → IAD

departs 6:41 PM EST · arrives 12:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 448 · PTY → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?