Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

CM 478 · PTY → MCO

departs 12:04 PM EST · arrives 4:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 478 · PTY → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?