Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Today
CX 812 · HKG → BOS
departs 7:10 PM HKT · arrives 11:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
70%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
70%
Yes 70%
No 30%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG
Weather at each end
HKG (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.