CX 85 · JFK → YYZ

departs 10:17 PM ET · arrives 11:48 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CX 85 · JFK → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?