Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1149 · DTW → MCO
departs 2:34 PM ET · arrives 5:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.