Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1166 · SAT → JFK
departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 72%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.