Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1209 · PDX → SLC
departs 1:15 PM PT · arrives 4:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Other factors
↑
1pm departures from PDX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 2 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.