Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1210
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1210 · SLC → SAN
departs 3:00 PM MT · arrives 3:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 21%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±8 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.67 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.