Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1216
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1216 · IAH → LAX
departs 7:10 AM CT · arrives 8:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.