Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1252
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1252 · SLC → SAN
departs 5:10 PM MT · arrives 6:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 81%
Mon 10/12 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 21%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.83 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.