Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 1407 · RDU → DTW
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 8:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.