Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1423 · SMF → SLC
departs 1:36 PM PT · arrives 4:13 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Other factors
↑
1pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.