Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1431 · PHX → SLC
departs 1:20 PM MT · arrives 3:58 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Mon 10/12 37%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.