Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1492 · STL → SLC
departs 6:54 PM CT · arrives 9:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.