Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 1643 · JFK → AUS
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 4:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.