Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 1827 · ORD → LGA
departs 5:56 PM CT · arrives 9:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 41%
Thu 10/15 50%
Fri 10/16 55%
Sat 10/17 34%
Sun 10/18 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.