Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1851 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 6:30 PM ET (16 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Today

DL 1851 · MCO → LGA

departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1851 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?