Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1862 · SFO → LAX
departs 12:06 PM PT · arrives 1:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Mon 10/12 37%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15 34%
Fri 10/16 37%
Sat 10/17 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.