Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1891 · IAH → DTW
departs 3:33 PM CT · arrives 7:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DTW that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.