Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1900 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

DL 1900 · SAN → DTW

departs 1:24 PM PT · arrives 8:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

DTW (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1900 · SAN → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?