Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1957
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1957 · MBJ → JFK
departs 1:06 PM EST · arrives 5:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Mon 10/12 35%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 21%
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.