Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2004 · BOS → LAX
departs 11:26 AM ET · arrives 2:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 10/12 48%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from BOS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.