Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 2412 · SRQ → LGA
departs 1:29 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.