Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2454 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 12:53 PM ET (19 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

DL 2454 · LGA → TPA

departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 3:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2454 · LGA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?