Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2474 · RSW → BOS
departs 10:36 AM ET · arrives 1:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.