Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2533 · SEA → SAN
departs 9:45 AM PT · arrives 12:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/12 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.