Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2581 · SLC → AUS
departs 1:23 PM MT · arrives 5:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/12 37%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.83 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.