Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 2636 · RIC → DTW
departs 5:01 PM ET · arrives 6:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.