Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2859 · DTW → BDL
departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 8:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BDL that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BDL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BDL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.