Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2930 · LGA → IAH
departs 1:29 PM ET · arrives 4:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 33%
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.