Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2934 · DTW → JFK
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 77%
Mon 10/12 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.