Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

DL 415 · SEA → JFK

departs 12:09 PM PT · arrives 8:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 415 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?