Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

DL 470 · LAS → DTW

departs 9:59 AM PT · arrives 4:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 470 · LAS → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?