Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

DL 499 · DEN → BOS

departs 11:33 AM MT · arrives 5:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DL's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 499 · DEN → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?