Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 511 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 11:45 AM ET (16 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

DL 511 · MCO → CVG

departs 11:25 AM ET · arrives 1:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 511 · MCO → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?