Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 541 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

DL 541 · SEA → IAD

departs 2:50 PM PT · arrives 10:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 541 · SEA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?