Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 617 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

DL 617 · LGA → BDA

departs 11:47 AM ET · arrives 2:56 PM ADT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at BDA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BDA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BDA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 617 · LGA → BDA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDA?