Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 816 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

DL 816 · BOS → SAT

departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 12:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 816 · BOS → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?